CEOs’ views of current and expected economic conditions turned moderately negative

NEW YORK, Oct. 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council fell to 46 in Q4 2026, down 6 points from 52 in Q3. (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses). A total of 131 CEOs participated in the Q4 2026 survey, which was fielded from September 21 through October 5.

“CEO confidence fell in Q4 2026 to its lowest level since Q2 2025. This reversed a mild rebound in Q3 2026, potentially in response to rising geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices during the survey period,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The reading reflects a shift from mild optimism to moderate cautiousness among leaders of large US firms. CEOs’ assessments of current economic conditions were somewhat more negative, while 41% expected conditions to worsen over the next six months—up sharply from 19% in Q3. Regarding their own industries, CEOs were much less positive about current conditions and expect little to no improvement six months hence.” 

“Despite weaker views of the overall economy and conditions in their own industries, most CEOs expect to maintain (53%) or even increase (36%) their existing capital investment plans,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board. “Notably, planned wage increases rose in Q4, with those signaling wage hikes of 4% or more rising to 16%, up from 9% last quarter. Regarding hiring plans, 33% of CEOs expected to expand their workforce, down slightly from 34% in Q3. This proportion was still higher than the share expecting to reduce their workforce (31% in Q4, up from 28% in Q3). Regarding business risks, concerns related to technology were top of mind for CEOs. Cybersecurity, AI, and Geopolitical risks remained the top three and rose in intensity as high-importance risks in Q4.”

Current Conditions

CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions worsened in Q4 2026:

• 19% of CEOs said economic conditions were better than six months ago, down from 23% in Q3 2026.
• 37% said economic conditions were worse, up notably from 26%.

CEOs’ assessments of conditions in their own industries softened in Q4:

• 35% of CEOs said conditions in their own industries were better than six months ago, down from 43% in Q3.
• 29% said conditions in their own industries were worse, up from 23%.

Future Conditions

CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook declined in Q4 2026:      

• 13% of CEOs expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 25% in Q3 2026.
• 41% expected economic conditions to worsen, a significant increase from 19% last quarter.

CEOs’ expectations for short-term prospects in their own industries weakened in Q4:   

• 25% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months, down from 36%.
• 28% expected conditions in their own industry to worsen over the next six months, up sharply from 13% in Q3.

Employment, Recruiting, Wages, and Capital Spending

• Employment: 33% of CEOs expected to expand their workforce, down slightly from 34% in Q3 2026. This was higher than the share expecting to reduce their workforce (31%, up from 28%). 36% of CEOs anticipated no change in their workforce.
• Hiring Qualified People: Over the next 12 months, a majority of CEOs (61%) expected either no problem hiring (15%) or overall no problem but some problems in some areas (46%).
• Wages: Most CEOs (57%) continued to plan annual wage hikes concentrated in the 3–3.9% range. The share planning wage hikes of 4% or more rose to 16%, up from 9% last quarter.
• Capital Spending: Most CEOs (53%) indicated no plans to revise capital spending. The share of CEOs expecting to increase capital spending rose to 36% in Q4 2026, up from 31% in Q3. Meanwhile, only 11% of CEOs expected to revise spending plans downward.

Industry Risks

The intensity of the top three risks—cyber, AI & new technology, and geopolitical—all rose significantly in Q4 2026:

AI Adoption (Special Questions for Q4 2026)

On a special series of questions about AI adoption, CEOs primarily expected AI to increase productivity and lower costs:

CEOs were most worried about sluggish AI adoption:

The majority of CEOs expected AI-driven productivity gains to constitute 5% or more of their company’s plans:

Cybersecurity threats were by far CEOs’ top AI-related concern:

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org  l  Learn about Membership

About The Business Council
The Business Council is a forum for the CEOs of the world’s largest multinational corporations across all industry sectors. Members gather several times each year to share best practices, network and engage in intellectually provocative, enlightening discussions with peers and thought-leaders in business, government, academia, science, technology and other disciplines. Through the medium of discussion, the Council seeks to foster greater understanding of the major opportunities and challenges facing business, and to create consensus for solutions. The Business Council is a nonpartisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (6) tax-exempt status. The Business Council does not lobby. Visit The Business Council’s website at www.thebusinesscouncil.org

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SOURCE The Conference Board